Forex Flash: AUD outlook turning down - RBS

While the outlook for the AUD "is not deteriorating rapidly, it nonetheless is turning down", these are the opening remarks from today's note to clients from Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at RBS.

"The Australian capital expenditure survey received a mixed review. Some saw positives in the first rubbery estimate for expenditure in the next fiscal year ended June-2014, but it remains the case that investment plans in the current year fiscal year (ended Jun-13) were revised down sharply late last year and were revised a little lower again in yesterday's survey."

First estimate for next fiscal year, in view of Greg, "was down from the first estimate made a year ago for the current fiscal year, and down on the latest estimate for the current fiscal year" adding that "perhaps there will be some upward revisions from this first 2013/14 estimate, but you wouldn't bank on it..."

The overall picture, as Greg notes, "is one of investment peaking." And while it may not be about to go into reverse, "mining investment is set at best to be a modest contributor to growth and employment for the foreseeable future" he adds.